Farashin ƙarfe na iya yin saukowa a farkon 2022

A cikin 2021, farashin ƙarfe na ƙarfe zai yi sama da ƙasa, kuma hauhawar farashin zai wuce tsammanin yawancin masu aiki.Masu lura da masana'antu sun ce hargitsin da ake yi a kasuwar tama na iya zama al'ada.

Kasuwancin ƙarfe na ƙarfe zai canza a cikin 2021

A farkon shekarar 2021, a lokacin bikin sabuwar shekara da bikin bazara, yawancin kamfanonin karafa sun cika albarkatun tama, an saki bukatar karafa, kuma farashin ya ci gaba da hauhawa.A ƙarshen kwata na farko, a ƙarƙashin matsin lamba na ƙuntatawa mai ƙarfi a cikin Tangshan, farashin ƙarfe na ƙarfe ya tashi kuma ya faɗi.A ranar 25 ga Maris, farashin baƙin ƙarfe 65% da aka shigo da shi ya kasance $192.37/ton, ƙasa da $6.28/ton daga ƙarshen mako da ya gabata.

A cikin kwata na biyu, karuwar samar da kamfanonin karafa a waje da Tangshan ya haifar da gibin da aka samu a Tangshan, kuma yawan sinadarin alade ya karu fiye da yadda ake tsammani.Musamman bayan ranar 1 ga watan Mayu, farashin nau'in bakaken fata ya tashi cikin sauri, kuma farashin nau'ikan iri da yawa ya karya tarihi daya bayan daya.62 % Farashin tabo na gaba na baƙin ƙarfe da aka shigo da shi ya tashi zuwa mafi girma na dalar Amurka 233.7 / ton.Bayan haka, ta hanyar ka'idojin manufofi, farashin kasuwa na nau'in baƙar fata ya faɗi sosai, kuma farashin tama na kasuwa a hankali ya tashi ya faɗi.A ranar 8 ga Mayu, farashin ƙarfe mai kyau na gida ya kasance yuan / ton 1450;a ranar 14 ga Mayu, ya tashi zuwa 1570 yuan/ton;a ranar 28 ga Mayu, ya koma 1450 yuan/ton.

A cikin rubu'i na uku, sakamakon hauhawar farashin karafa da sauye-sauyen kayayyaki a cikin kayayyaki, yawan fashe-fashe a cikin masana'antar karafa ya karu, an sake fitar da bukatar kasuwar tama ta karafa, kuma farashin ya tashi a matsayi mai girma kuma ya dan tashi kadan.Ya zuwa ranar 27 ga Agusta, farashin 61.5% PB foda a tashar jiragen ruwa na Qingdao ya kasance yuan 1,040 / ton, karuwar yuan 25/ton daga makon da ya gabata.

Duk da haka, tare da ƙarfafa ƙuntatawa na samarwa da raguwar samarwa ta hanyar masana'antun ƙarfe, samar da ƙarfe na alade ya ragu da sauri, buƙatar baƙin ƙarfe ya ragu, kuma farashin ya fadi da sauri.Ya zuwa ranar 10 ga Satumba, farashin 61.5% PB foda a tashar jiragen ruwa na Qingdao ya kasance yuan/ton 970, ya ragu da yuan/ton 50 daga makon da ya gabata.Bayan haka, farashin foda na 61% na PB a tashar jirgin ruwa ta Qingdao ya fadi har zuwa kusan yuan 500 / ton, kuma sannu a hankali ya shiga matakin neman kasa.

Shiga cikin kwata na huɗu, kasuwar ma'adinan ƙarfe ta kasance mai rauni da kasala, tare da raguwar buƙata da ma'amaloli.Farashin ya sake canzawa, yana faɗuwa kafin ya tashi sannan ya tashi.Daukar kashi 62% da aka shigo da tama a matsayin misali, a ranar 27 ga Agusta, farashinsa ya kai yuan 1,040;a ranar 24 ga Satumba, ya kasance 746 yuan/ton.A watan Oktoba, farashin kasuwar tama ya tashi da farko sannan ya fadi.A ranar 5 ga Oktoba, farashin 62% na baƙin ƙarfe da aka shigo da shi ya koma yuan / ton 876, wanda ya dawo da yuan / ton 130;a ranar 29 ga Oktoba, ya koma yuan 806, ya ragu da yuan 70/ton.

A watan Nuwamba, farashin kasuwar tama ma ya fadi da farko sannan ya tashi, inda raguwar ta zarce tashin gwauron zabi.A ranar 5 ga Nuwamba, kashi 62% na baƙin ƙarfe da aka shigo da su an ƙididdige su akan RMB 697/ton, ƙasa da RMB 109/ton;a ranar 26 ga Nuwamba, tayin ya daina faɗuwa kuma ya sake komawa, ya tashi zuwa RMB 640/ton, sama da RMB 74/ton.A karshen watan Nuwamba, farashin 62% da aka shigo da shi daga waje ya fadi da yuan/ton 630 idan aka kwatanta da karshen watan Agusta.

Farashin kasuwar tama a watan Disamba ya nuna koma baya.A ranar 2 ga Disamba, 62% na baƙin ƙarfe da aka shigo da su an nakalto a yuan / ton 666, sama da yuan 26;a ranar 10 ga Disamba, farashin ya kasance yuan 700/ton, sama da yuan 34/ton;a ranar 17 ga Disamba, farashin ya kasance yuan 755, sama da yuan 55 / ton.A cikin makon daga ranar 13 ga Disamba zuwa 17 ga Disamba, farashin foda mai kyau na baƙin ƙarfe a manyan yankunan gida ya tashi da yuan 30-80.

Ana iya gani daga yanayin farashin kasuwar tama a cikin kwata na hudu cewa a watan Oktoba da Nuwamba, farashin kasuwar tama ya kasance a cikin rugujewar tashar ƙasa, kuma raguwar ta fi ƙarfin tashin hankali.Duk da haka, farashin kasuwar tama a watan Disamba ya daina faɗuwa kuma ya sake komawa, kuma karuwar ba ƙaramin abu ba ne, ya sake shiga tashar sama.Dangane da haka, manazarta masana'antu sun yi imanin cewa: Na farko, ana sa ran sake dawowa da masana'antar sarrafa karafa ita ce ginshikin karfin wannan zagaye na sake farfado da farashin tama.Bisa kididdigar da aka yi, matsakaicin yawan fitar da danyen karfe da na alade na yau da kullun na kamfanonin mamba na kungiyar karafa da karafa ta kasar Sin wadanda suka shiga cikin kididdigar a farkon watan Disamba ya kai tan miliyan 1.9343 da tan miliyan 1.6418, karuwar kashi 12.66% da 0.59% a wata. -a-wata.Na biyu, an shafe shi ta hanyar sake dawowa a kasuwar gaba.Tun daga ƙarshen Nuwamba, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na gaba ya sake komawa sosai, tare da karuwa mafi girma fiye da 20%.Wanda hakan ya shafa, farashin kasuwar tamanin tamanin da aka samar ya ci gaba da farfadowa.Na uku shine hasashe na wucin gadi.A ƙarƙashin yanayin ƙarancin buƙata, ƙima mai yawa, da kuma babban sabani tsakanin samarwa da buƙata, farashin ƙarfe ya tashi sosai ba tare da tallafi ba, kuma ba za a iya kawar da hasashe na wucin gadi ba.

Farashin ƙarfe na iya yin saukowa a farkon 2022

Masu aiki da masana'antun masana'antu gabaɗaya sun yi imanin cewa a farkon 2022, tsarin "ƙarfi mai ƙarfi da ƙarancin buƙatu" a cikin kasuwar ma'adinan ƙarfe ba zai canza ba, wanda ke tabbatar da cewa farashin kasuwar ƙarfe yana da sauƙin faɗuwa kuma yana da wahala a tashi. , kuma yana canzawa zuwa ƙasa.Wata cibiyar bincike ta ce: "Ana tsammanin cibiyar farashin tama zai ragu a cikin 2022."

A cikin hirar, masu aiki da masana'antun masana'antu sun ce akwai dalilai guda uku a bayan "karfin wadata da buƙatu mai rauni" a farkon 2022.

Na farko, har yanzu ana cikin lokacin dumama daga watan Janairu zuwa tsakiyar Maris 2022, kuma masana'antar ƙarfe da karafa a yankin Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei da kewaye za su canza yadda ake samarwa a lokacin dumama daga 2021 zuwa 2022. Bisa manufa, daga Daga 1 ga Janairu zuwa Maris 15, 2022, rabon samar da ƙarfe da karafa a duk yankuna da suka dace ba zai zama ƙasa da 30% ba.

Na biyu, a farkon shekarar 2022, wasu masana'antun karafa za su kasance cikin yanayin rufewar, wanda zai yi tasiri wajen sakin karfin samar da kayayyaki.Bisa kididdigar da ba ta cika ba, a halin yanzu, akwai kimanin tankunan fashewa guda 220 da ke karkashin kulawa a masana'antar karafa ta kasar, lamarin da ya shafi matsakaicin samar da narkakkar karfe na kusan tan 663,700 a kullum, wanda shi ne matakin da ya yi tasiri wajen samar da karafa da ya fi narkakkar a baya. shekaru uku.

Na uku shine inganta tsarin masana'antar ƙarfe da karafa da haɓaka haɓakar haɓakar masana'antar ƙarfe da ƙarfe.A cikin tsarin maye gurbin ƙarfin, kamfanonin karafa sun rage yawan samar da ƙarfe na dogon lokaci, kuma buƙatar takin ƙarfe ya ci gaba da raguwa.Karkashin bangon "carbon peaking" da "carbon neutrality", "Carbon Peaking Action Plan kafin 2030" da Majalisar Jiha ta fitar ya fayyace cewa zai inganta ingantaccen tsarin masana'antar karafa, da ƙwazo da haɓaka nunin tanderun da ba mai fashewa ba. sansanonin ƙera ƙarfe, da aiwatar da tanderun wutar lantarki mai jujjuyawa.sana'a.Ban da wannan kuma, "Ra'ayoyin kwamitin tsakiya na jam'iyyar kwaminis ta kasar Sin da majalisar gudanarwar kasar Sin game da zurfafa yakin rigakafin gurbatar yanayi da kuma hana gurbata muhalli" sun yi kira da a inganta sauya fashe tanderun da ke jujjuya karafa na dogon lokaci zuwa tanderun lantarki cikin gajeren lokaci. aikin karfe.

Za a iya gani daga shirin sauya karfin samar da karafa da aka sanar kwanan nan cewa sabon karfin samar da karafa ya kai tan miliyan 30, wanda karfin wutar lantarkin ya zarce tan miliyan 15, wanda ya kai fiye da kashi 50%, wanda ke nufin cewa kamfanoni da yawa sun zaba. gajeriyar tsari na ƙera ƙarfe .Babu shakka, gina na'urorin fitar da iskar Carbon a duk faɗin ƙasar da kuma ƙaddamar da shirin aiwatar da aikin "carbon peak" a shekarar 2030 za su haifar da yanayi ga kamfanonin ƙarfe da karafa su yi amfani da ƙarafa da ƙarancin ƙarfe.A shekarar 2022, ana sa ran bukatar karafa da kamfanonin karafa za su sake yin rauni, kuma da wuya farashin kasuwar karafa ya tashi matuka a nan gaba.

A cikin matsakaita da kuma dogon lokaci, "carbon peaking" da "carbon neutrality" har yanzu za su kasance da mummunar alaƙa da abubuwan da ke da alaƙa don sakin ƙarfin samarwa a cikin masana'antar ƙarfe, wanda zai yi tasiri kai tsaye ga buƙatar takin ƙarfe.A takaice dai, abubuwan da ba su da kyau a kasuwar tama ba su bace ba, kuma babu wani abin da zai sa a goyi bayan hauhawar farashinsa.

Masana sun yi nuni da cewa, a matsakaita da kuma na dogon lokaci, idan ba a samu sauye-sauye a zahiri ba wajen samarwa da bukatar takin karfe, babu wani dalili da zai sa farashin tama ya tashi sosai.Farashin tabo na taman ƙarfe yana da ma'ana idan yana cikin kewayon dalar Amurka 80/ton zuwa dalar Amurka 100/ton;idan ya zarce dalar Amurka 100/ton, ba a tallafawa tushen tushe da buƙatu;idan ya faɗi ƙasa da dalar Amurka 80/ton, ana iya samun ƙarin.Ma'adinai masu tsada za su janye daga kasuwa, tare da daidaita wadatar kasuwa.

Duk da haka, wasu masana'antun masana'antu suna ganin cewa a cikin hasashen yanayin kasuwar tama a farkon shekarar 2022, ya zama dole a kula da tasirin sauye-sauyen da aka samu a cikin tataccen mai, man fetur, kasuwar kwal da kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki a kan karfe. farashin kasuwan noma.A shekarar 2021, samar da man fetur, iskar gas, da tace mai, kwal, wutar lantarki da sauran hanyoyin samar da makamashi a duniya, za su kasance masu tsauri, kayayyaki za su yi kadan, kuma farashin zai yi tashin gwauron zabi a duk shekara, tare da karuwa fiye da shekara guda. 30%.Duk farashin jigilar kaya yana da girma sosai.Tazarar da ake samu a fannin sufuri ya karu, wadata da bukatu na sufurin teku ya yi tsanani, kuma farashin kaya ya yi tashin gwauron zabi.Dangane da bayanan da suka dace, a cikin 2021, farashin jigilar kaya mai busasshen duniya (BDI) zai tashi gabaɗaya, kuma da zarar ya wuce maki 5,600 a cikin Oktoba, haɓakar sau uku idan aka kwatanta da kusan maki 1,400 a farkon 2021, yana buga sabon matsayi a cikin shekaru 13.A cikin 2022, ana tsammanin farashin jigilar kayayyaki na teku zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa ko ma ganin ƙarin haɓaka.A ranar 9 ga Disamba, Ƙididdigar bushewar Baltic (BDI) ta rufe a maki 3,343, sama da maki 228 ko 7.3% akan lokaci guda.A ranar 8 ga Disamba, ma'aunin jigilar ma'aunin ƙarfe na bakin teku ya rufe a maki 1377.82.A halin yanzu, farashin teku na ci gaba da komawa baya, kuma ana sa ran alamar BDI za ta ci gaba da hawa sama a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.

Manazarta masana'antu sun yi imanin cewa aƙalla a farkon 2022, ba za a iya warware matsalar "karancin makamashi" na duniya gaba ɗaya ba.Farashin jigilar kayayyaki da hauhawar farashin makamashi a ketare za su yi wani tasiri kan farashin kasuwar tama.